Who is Paying the Party? A Research Paper Integrating Socio-Technical and Financial Perspectives on the Green Energy Transition

Abstract

This thesis investigates how structural conditions influence the financing of the green energy transition across OECD countries. Drawing on the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP), it analyzes the interaction between national resource endowments, ownership models, and financial market structures in shaping transition strategies. Five countries are selected as case studies to represent different institutional configurations and transition pathways. The study adopts a mixed-methods design, combining qualitative institutional analysis with quantitative financial data analysis. Using weekly bond index data it examines risk-adjusted performance, greenium effects, and pricing dynamics in global, euro, and US green vs. conventional bond markets. Additionally, country-level financing models are evaluated based on capital mobilization, instrument diversity, public-private capital mix, and market maturity. The results reveal that green-labeled instruments generally do not outperform conventional ones in risk-adjusted terms and often trade at higher yields, particularly in the US market. However, countries with strong public financial institutions and developed capital markets have successfully anchored green market development through sovereign issuance and policy frameworks. Meanwhile, state-led models demonstrate high public investment without relying on traditional subsidy schemes. This thesis contributes to the literature by bridging socio-technical transition theory with empirical financial market analysis. It underscores that transition finance is not merely a matter of market appetite but is deeply embedded in national political economies and institutional legacies. The findings offer strategic insights for designing context-sensitive financing strategies in support of global decarbonization goals.