Værdiansættelse af Vestas Wind System A/S: En investering i en bæredygtig fremtid

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to conduct a valuation of Vestas Wind System A/S. To investigate the valuation of Vestas, this paper answers the research question: Is Vestas’ theoretical stock price per. 31.12.2020 accurate compared to the listed stock price for the same period? And can it be recommended as a private investor to invest in Vestas? To answer the research questions, the following perspectives have been investigated: • The competitive situation in the wind turbine industry • The internal factors that influence Vestas’ position on the market • The development of the financials in Vestas from 2016-2020 • The theoretical share value of Vestas per 31.12.2020 Vestas Wind System A/S, mostly shorted as Vestas, is a global supplier of renewable energy in the form of wind energy from windmill turbines, which they produce and distribute almost all around the world. The valuation is based on a strategic and financial analysis. The source for the analyses will primarily be answered by a review of Vestas’ annual report for 2020. For the financial statement, the annual reports back from 2016-2020 will be needed. Besides the Annual report, publicity, available and relevant statements, and information will contribute. The strategic analysis is based on a PEST analysis which contributed to the external analysis of the macro-environmental factors that have an impact on the wind turbine industry. Here it was found that there is a very high potential on the offshore market for the suppliers of windmill turbines. The increased awareness for the environment also contributes to this potential of renewable wind energy. Michael Porters’ competitive model, known as “Porter 5 Forces”, is contributing to analyzing the competition in the wind turbine industry. Here it was found that the wind turbine industry has high barriers, while the competition is very tough. Michael Porter's “Value chain” contributed to the internal analysis of Vestas’ strengths and weaknesses. Here it was found that Vestas is the market leader on the onshore market with highly skilled employees for research and development. However, 2020 was also the year that Vestas acquired Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ shares in the MHI Vestas company, which was a joint venture, to focus more on the potential in offshore activities. The SWOT is used as a summary of the strategic analysis, which leads the paper to the analysis of the financial statement. These analyses will be a transition to create the financial value drivers. This analysis concludes the financial value drivers for Vestas, which is the value drivers contribute to the budgetary assumptions that have been used in the final budget for the valuation. The discounted cash flow model (shorted as “DCF model”) is the most theoretically correct and is one of the most used models for valuing a company's theoretical share price. The DCF model has been used to answer the research question of this thesis. The valuation of Vestas’ is interesting because of their renewable image as one of the great renewable leading companies in a time where the global climate crisis tends to get more attention. Because of the ongoing potential of Vestas, it would be interesting to see what a valuation of Vestas’ pr. 31.12.2020 would tell us about their equity value, and therefore their theoretical stock price. The theoretical stock price will tell us if the price is over-or underrated compared to the listed stock price on the exchange market. Finally, the summary of the analyses will contribute to tell if private investors should buy stocks in Vestas Wind System A/S