Residential Baseline Estimation and Demand Response Quantification: A Case Study for Czechia

Emil Johan Otto Vesterinen & Ondrej Benes

Student thesis: Master thesis


In the present day volatile electrical energy market, with ever growing demand in combination with decreasing supply due to the need to reduce the usage of fossil fuels, something is needed to balance this possibly occurring gap, in addition to the negative externalities stemming from its existence. This is where demand side management (DSM) would come in. The objective of this thesis is to compare and determine optimal baseline estimation methods inspired by existing literature, to the recently introduced benchmark method set by the Czech regulator CEPS, as well as quantification of demand response (DR) ˇ schemes as a part of the initiative of DSM. The data set for this study, collected over the 2022 heating season, is provided by the Czech energy conglomerate CEZ a.s as the ˇ thesis came to life as part of a pilot project by CEZ a.s on the potential of DSM in the ˇ specific regional setting of Czechia. Therefore, this paper carries a very specific regional setting and framework. We conclude that in the context of residential heat pumps a weather based regression would be the superior model out of the chosen methods in this study, in addition to the accuracy of the baseline method being crucial for the outcome of quantifying the DR. We also note that there are multiple moving parts in addition to kWh usage such as real-time pricing, energy source, and tariffs to take into account for precise DR valuation. Additionally, we suggest that adding the concept of a rebound seems necessary for properly quantifying the value of a DR scheme

EducationsMSc in Advanced Economics and Finance, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
Publication date2022
Number of pages100
SupervisorsManuel Llorca, Martin Pilar & Filip Jelínek