Predicting the Italian Tourist Behavior After the First Wave of the Covid-19 Pandemic: The Effects of Human Values and Health Risk Perception on the Intentions to Travel Domestically

Melanie Bertolin

Student thesis: Master thesis


The global crisis induced by the Covid-19 pandemic has deeply upset the travel sector in Italy, raising doubts about an effective recovery after the first peak of the health emergency. As a matter of fact, many Italians were uncertain about taking some time away from home in the summer 2020. Accordingly, this research aims at investigating Italians’ intentions to travel within the country in the uncertain scenario caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, by employing an original conceptual framework that combines the theory of planned behavior (Ajzen, 1985), the theory of basic human values (Schwartz, 1992), and a tailored measure of perceived health risk. In addition, the study develops a market segmentation based on the basic human values, whose goal is to evaluate whether the results obtained by applying the conceptual model change across individuals with different value priorities. The theoretical model has been tested on a sample of 1014 adult Italian travellers. The results show that the major determinant of the intentions to travel is the perceived approval by peers and public opinion (subjective norms) and that this does not change across different value segments. Furthermore, it was proven that both values and perceived health risk significantly contribute to the explanation of the intentions to travel within Italy in the uncertain scenario.

EducationsMSocSc in Management of Creative Business Processes , (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
Publication date2020
Number of pages96
SupervisorsFumiko Kano Glückstad