Insiderhandel forud for offentliggørelse af overtagelsestilbud

Abstract

This thesis examines whether it is likely that insider trading occurred in the period 2014-2024 on NASDAQ OMX Copenhagen Main Market. By applying an event study methodology, a sample comprising 30 target companies was analyzed over an event window consisting of 34 days surrounding the date when such target companies were subject to a takeover bid. The event study analysis revealed both cumulative average abnormal return and cumulative average abnormal turnover during the event window. Although the run up in the cumulative average abnormal return and cumulative average abnormal turnover exhibited factors in general consistent with the presence of insider trading as predicted by the information leakage theory, the run up were found to align better with the predictions of the market anticipation theory. The market anticipation theory argues that the run up in cumulative average abnormal return and cumulative average abnormal turnover are derived from legitimate trading by sophisticated investors who have been able to predict takeover bids through legitimate sources. The thesis concludes that while it based on the event study results cannot be ruled out that insider trading occurred during the analysis period, the findings are not considered to have provided sufficient indications or evidence to support that insider trading likely occurred between 2014-2024 on NASDAQ OMX Copenhagen Main Market.