There is a general prevalence of a proximity syndrome throughout the world of business firms and business education today that only focuses on the proximate environment of the business firm in terms of scope and time-horizon. The current paradigm that business firms operate under is simply too narrowly defined. This syndrome has limited the opportunities for strategic innovations that could otherwise foster competitive advantage. In this thesis, the current handling; future utilisation; and ROI, of strategic forecasting as a tool for decision makers to move beyond the proximity syndrome have therefore been investigated. A range of elite-interviews with expert-representatives from five different professions in the Danish business world has shed light on the different forecasting methodologies in use today and the philosophy behind. It was found, that in order to secure long-term competitive advantage in a highly turbulent and continuously changing business environment, business managers must employ strategic forecasting under the entrepreneurial marketing concept in order to create an innovation driven business firm capable of capitalising on market turbulence. Under the entrepreneurial marketing concept, it is concluded that strategic forecasting contributes with a holistic understanding of the micro-; meso-; and macro-economic environment of the business firm from a time-structured view on economics. Trough the utilisation of three underlying research directions: strategic warning; futures research; and business cycle analysis, strategic forecasting draws on both qualitative and quantitative research methodologies in order to implement ex ante analysis and the inside-out perspective of the entrepreneurial marketing concept. If strategic forecasting is applied in the proposed format, it demands a severe structural shift in the current business paradigm. Business executives; managers; and employees alike must restructure their mental timehorizon of performance and business scope. The radical change also means that the entrenchment and protectionism needs to be dismissed and replaced by an acceptance of an innovation process affected by the external environment. Through the utilisation of the three underlying research directions, the theoretical framework of strategic forecasting is believed to provide managers with extensive coverage of the identification of drivers in their competitive environment to create the foundation for sustained competitive advantage.
|Educations||MSc in International Marketing and Management, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis|
|Number of pages||133|