Strategisk analyse og værdiansættelse af Roblon A/S samt diskussion af ideel model til værdiansættelsen

Abstract

Executive summary: The purpose of this thesis is to estimate the value of the share price of the Danish company Roblon A/S, which is listed on the NASDAQ OMX Copenhagen stock exchange. Roblon A/S was founded as a traditional rope making manufacturer in 1953, and has since then developed an advanced product portfolio, which is sold to customers world wide. The valuation of the stock price will be based on a fundamental analysis of company. This approach will ensure that all relevant value drivers are included in the valuation. The main conclusion from the strategic analysis is that the company faces big changes in activities in the coming years. Some of the company high profitable synthetic fiber products are based on a technology, which is patented until 2018 only. After this much more competition is expected within the market segment. However, the company is likely to develop new markets within the composite material industry, which can ensure a high return on investment in the future. On the short run the company will benefit from the recent devaluation of the Danish currency, which will make the company more competitive. The financial analysis is based on historical information from the annual reports over the past five years. The increase in return of investment has been significant over the five years, which is mainly due to higher sales and better utilization of production facilities. However the growth seems to have peaked and in the last year the operating profit has decreased. The combined conclusion from the strategic and financial analysis is that the company has faced a setback in the return on investment in the last year, however the devaluation of the Danish currency will lead to higher return on investment rates on the short run. The identified financial and non-financial value drivers are used to estimate the budget for the coming years. Using the EVA valuation model the company share price is estimated to DKK 374 as per 31 January 2015, which leads to the conclusion that the price at the stock exchange is undervalued with 23%. A stress test has been carried out on the estimated value of the stock price. It shows that the stock price is very sensitive to changes in beta value and illiquidity premium.