EU Industrial Policy in an Era of Geostrategic Competition: Assessing the Net-Zero Industry Act Through the Case of the Offshore Wind Power Industry

Abstract

Industrial policy has experienced a global resurgence following a series of crises, including the 2008 Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, pressures to decarbonise economies, and growing concerns over deindustrialisation in advanced economies. In response to the targeted strategies of large economies such as China’s “Made in China 2025” initiative and the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act, the European Union (EU) adopted the Net-Zero Industry Act in June 2024 to strengthen its manufacturing base across 19 strategic net-zero technologies. This thesis employs a single-case study design to assess how the Net-Zero Industry Act applies industrial policy instruments to strengthen the competitiveness and strategic autonomy of the European offshore wind power industry. The thesis contributes to the emerging literature on the EU’s evolving industrial policy by addressing calls for empirical research into how strategic autonomy is operationalised through concrete policy action. Given the early implementation stage of the Act, the thesis adopts a theory-informed, ex-ante evaluation approach to interpret the policy instruments and assess their likely effects on the offshore wind power industry. Guided by assumptions from evolutionary economics, the study draws on theories of industrial policy, literature on EU industrial policy, and renewable energy policy to construct a conceptual framework. This framework maps the analytical categories, mechanisms, and driving factors critical to analysing industrial policy in the EU context. Applying this framework, the thesis utilises secondary data sources. Specifically, the research triangulates three streams of material: a document analysis of legislative texts, academic literature, market analyses, and industry and policy reports; a comparative industry assessment of the offshore wind sectors in Denmark, Germany, and China; and an inductive content analysis of 32 stakeholder submissions covering firms and industry associations across the offshore wind power value chain. The findings show that although the Net-Zero Industry Act addresses competitiveness challenges such as supply chain relocation, labour shortages, and regulatory fragmentation, structural issues such as volatile deployment conditions and macroeconomic pressures remain unresolved. Stake- holder analysis reveals tensions between firms advocating global supply chains and those favouring localised production, underscoring broader dilemmas in balancing competitiveness and strategic autonomy. At a conceptual level, the findings suggest that while the EU has shifted towards a more targeted, mission-oriented industrial policy approach, persistent structural constraints within its multi-level governance system limit its capacity for transformative intervention. The thesis emphasises that realising the goals of competitiveness and strategic autonomy will depend action taken by Member States and on credible financial incentives, sector-specific flexibility, and stronger risk-sharing mechanisms to encourage firm-level strategic shifts.