Prisfastsættelse af Apple Inc. aktien

Steffen Yip

Student thesis: Master thesis

Abstract

The main purpose of this thesis is to answer the following question: “What is the fair value of the shares of Apple Inc.” To estimate the value of the share, I have performed a strategic and financial analysis. The financial analysis reveals that Apple has been undergoing an impressing growth in the net sales for the past couple of years. Further the financial analysis showed that economies of scale exist in Apples business model and that a big part of the net sales is generated by complementary products which can be connected to the sales of Macs, iPhones and iPods. The strategic analysis revealed that there is reason to expect continued growth in the smartphone market and computer market while the sale of digital music players is saturated and is expected to decline as the threat of substitution is expected to increase. An analysis of Apples core capabilities, competitors and the development in consumer behavior and disposable income further reveals that Apple will experience growth in net sales as the result of underlying growth in the markets and increased market shares. Meanwhile the competition is expected to intensify in the coming years which will result in reduced gross margins. However, as a result of Apples differentiated product portfolio I believe that Apple will be able to maintain a higher margin than its competitors. As a result of the different analysis fair value of the stocks of Apple Inc. is estimated to be worth 152,04 $ 27th of July 2009 using the DCF- model, which is worth 95 % of the market value at the time of valuation. The value of the stocks has incorporated the expectation that Apple due to its product development and its brand will be able to continue to increase its net sales through the existing product portfolio. On the other hand only a small likelihood that Apple will be able to continue to penetrate new markets with the same potential as iPhone is incorporated in the value. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the fair value is very sensitive to even small changes in WACC, gross margin and growth of net sales. On the other hand the fair value is supported by the multiples analysis. Hence the stock of Apple Inc. must be characterized as an investment where the underlying risk and return is reflected in the value of the share.

EducationsMSc in Finance and Strategic Management, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
LanguageDanish
Publication date2009
Number of pages178