Strategisk analyse og værdiansættelse af Carlsberg A/S

Ulrik Kvist Wichmann

Student thesis: Master thesis


The purpose of this thesis was to calculate the share price of Carlsberg A/S which is listed on the NASDAQ OMX Copenhagen stock exchange, and to see if the share price it was traded at on October 1st 2013 was a fair estimate of the price. Carlsberg is the world’s 4th largest brewer measured on volumes. Over the last decades Carlsberg has grown significantly and has consolidated itself as such a large company through acquisitions and mergers. Today it has activities all over Europe and Asia, and on the markets which it is not on, its beer is sold through licensing arrangements. While Carlsberg is facing some challenges there are definitely also a number of opportunities for Carlsberg to exploit. The first part of the thesis is an introductory section where a short history of Carlsberg is give alongside what activities Carlsberg partake in, strategy and a description of their markets. The second part of the thesis is a strategic analysis with three parts: an analysis of the macroeconomic environment, an industry analysis and finally a company specific analysis. The first part was done through a PEST analysis, the second part through Porters 5 Forces and the third part by a value chain analysis. Through these analyses it has been possible to estimate the trends in both the micro and macroeconomic environments influencing Carlsberg. The third part is a profitability analysis of Carlsberg carried out with the help of the DuPont pyramid, measuring certain key performance indicators both compared to expected returns and a peer in the form of Heineken. The fourth part is a budget made for 5 years into the future and a terminal period which is based on the outcomes form the previous sections. In the fifth and final section the valuation itself was performed. By using the DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model and the EVA (Economic Value Added) model at share price estimate of 966DKK – 976DKK were calculated. This was approx. 71% over the actual closing price on October 1st, and based on this the conclusion for an investor must be: Buy!

EducationsMSc in Auditing, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
Publication date2014
Number of pages111