Strategic analysis and valuation of Vestas Wind Systems A/S

Chris la Cour Valentin

Student thesis: Master thesis


The origin of Vestas Wind Systems A/S can be tracked all the way back, to being a blacksmiths in 1898. It was however, not until the oil crisis of the 1970s, before Vestas as we know it today, started experimenting with the manufacturing of alternative energy sources. Vestas has since hen not looked back, and has over the past 30 years been at the frontier in the development of wind turbines. In recent years the entire market has though gone through a turbulent period, because of the aftermath from the financial crisis. Vestas has especially been hit hard, having difficulties achieving the same level of success as previous years, which is evident when looking at the development in the share price. The purpose of this thesis is therefore to shed light on, what the actual value is of Vestas for a potential investor, and have therefore culminated in the following overall problem statement: What is Vestas real value and is it in correlation with the share price of September 30th 2013? To equip a potential investor with the best possible position, there has been a brief walk though of Vestas history and development. Hereby giving the reader an adequate background knowledge, and thereby a better understanding of the following analyses. Vestas position in the market is established through an internal and external strategic analysis. The internal analysis focuses on Vestas as an organisation, and is analysed through the McKinsey's 7 Smodel. Having determined Vestas internal status, an external analysis is performed with the help of the PESTEL analysis and Porters five forces. From the analyses it is evident, that Vestas has made significant changes to their organisation, in order to turn around the development. Time will tell, whether these changes have the desired affect. There have therefore been performed three individual forecast, wherefrom the final valuation will be based. By taking into account three scenarios, the chance of misinterpretations is estimated to be reduced significantly. The weighted final valuation showed, through the DCF and EVA models, that Vestas was undervalued by DKK 49.12, relative to the cut of date, hereby making it an attractive share to invest in.

EducationsMSc in Applied Economics and Finance, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
Publication date2014
Number of pages118