Strategisk analyse & værdiansættelse af Carlsberg A/S

Dan Hansen

Student thesis: Diploma thesis


The main task with this assignment is to evaluate whether or not the share (B) for Carlsberg A/S is under‐ or overvalued according to the listed shareprice of DKK 607 per April 30, 2015. Carlsberg is a leading brewery and the 4th largest in the world. The company has a very strong market position in Westeurope. Their market in Asia are undergoing rapid growth. The market in Eastern Europe, however, is very challenged primarily due to taxes and a very competitive market. Carlsberg stills expects to increase marketshare on the long term. Current CEO is resigning by June 15, 2015 and is being replaced with a less experienced CEO within Carlsbergs field. This lead to some uncertainty. On the basis of a strategic and financial analysis forecasting of profit and cash flow has been made according to the DCF and RIDO‐model. A stand alone value indicate a theoretically shareprice of DKK 634 pr. Carlsberg B‐share. This indicates that the share is underpriced. However there are uncertain issues, eg. calculation of WACC and constantly growth (g), with have a large impact on the estimated shareprice if changed. On this basis the recommendation is not to invest sole in Carlsberg based on this valuation with the goal of short term gain.

EducationsGraduate Diploma in Finance, (Diploma Programme) Final Thesis
Publication date2015
Number of pages82