Værdiansættelse af Vestas Wind Systems A/S

Michael Eschelund

Student thesis: Master thesis

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to perform a strategic analysis and a valuation of Vestas Wind Systems A/S. The strategic analysis will focus on Vestas position within the windmill industry and the intensity of the competition between the windmill producers. Furthermore external factors which have an influence on the windmill industry will be discussed and analyzed. The strategic analysis used the following methods, PEST analysis, Porters five forces, Porters value chain and to sum these theories up I used the SWOT analysis. These theories are used to assist the estimates in the budget. The valuation of Vestas is based on the DCF model to verify the estimated value. The valuation model used in this thesis is the “The Discounted Cash Flow” model, the model requires that estimating the stockholders required rate of return, as well as the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), in order to calculate the theoretical value of the stock. The data presented in this thesis was collected up until June1st, 2010. The main conclusions of this thesis are:  Vestas status as a market leader could be over, their relatively weak position in China and USA is going to make it difficult to defend the current market share of 12,5 %. The market is also going intensify in competition in forthcoming years, when the Chinese manufacturers are going global.  The wind turbine industry is an industry in growth which insures a large future for the companies present. The future expectations for Vestas show a company in growth and a company with great potentials.  Public subsidiaries are still very important for the continuous growth in the market. It is still not competitive enough to compete with conventional energy sources on market terms.  Based on the DCF valuation Vestas is undervalued on the stock market, with the price of 286,6 DKK. The valuation gave a fair value of 402,2 DKK per share. Vestas operates in an interesting industry with high growth. Additionally the company has gone through a turnaround since Ditlev Engel became CEO in 2005 and has seen both considerable top line growth and margin improvements. But the company is faced with a number of challenges in the future.

EducationsMSc in Finance and Accounting, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
LanguageDanish
Publication date2010
Number of pages95