Strategisk analyse og værdiansættelse af Royal Unibrew A/S

Jacob Søderberg

Student thesis: Master thesis


In July 2013 Royal Unibrew engaged in a new Finnish business adventure by acquiring the country’s second largest brewery, Hartwall. With this acquisition Royal Unibrew has manifested their strong position in the Nordic region. The short and long term market outlook in the Nordic region is moderate economic development, political resistance, decreasing consumption and fierce competition. As the majority of Royal Unibrew’s revenue and profit stream originate from this region, Royal Unibrew is likely facing a future with stagnant development in revenue and a downward pressure on profitability. Utilizing a fundamental analysis, this thesis challenges the current market price of the Royal Unibrew stock. The Discounted Cash Flow- and Economic Value Added models provide the valuation framework and hence a reformulation of the income statement, balance sheet and statement of shareholder’s equity is performed, taking into account the clean surplus relation. A strategic analysis investigating three layers of the business environment in which Royal Unibrew operate is made and constitutes along with a profitability analysis and an industry ratio analysis the foundation for the forecast of Royal Unibrew’s future earnings. Future earnings are adjusted for risk and time using the estimated weighted average cost of capital and under the assumption of a constant WACC a fair market value of 759,47 [DKK] per share is estimated using the DCF and EVA models. Furthermore the fair market value is estimated based upon the multiples of peer companies. Compared to the Royal Unibrew closing price of 853 [DKK] on 11th of March 2014, the estimated fair market value indicate, that the Royal Unibrew stock might currently be overvalued. When tested through a Monte Carlo-simulation this thesis presents, that the valuation estimate greatly varies with the used parameter estimates and -assumptions, which highlights the necessity of carefully determining each parameter input. Finally it is concluded, with a possibility of 75,9 %, that the price of Royal Unibrew’s stock is overvalued.

EducationsMSc in Finance and Accounting, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
Publication date2014
Number of pages133