Værdiansættelse af Carlsberg A/S

Jesper Heding

Student thesis: Master thesis

Abstract

This paper is an equity valuation of Carlsberg which is based on the ReOI-valuation model. To accomplish a precise equity valuation the ReOI is based on forecasted drivers (ATO, PM and sales grow) which are the natural fit for this specific valuation. The overarching forecast will be divided into two different subgroups; a forecast of how the drivers develop in the short run and one that forecasts the long run. The short run forecast is based on a strategic analysis and a profitability analysis while the long run forecast is based on fade diagrams that show the natural long run level for the drivers in the industry. The equity valuation shows that the value of Carlsberg consists of three different entities put together. The first is the book value. The book value is found by reformulating the income statement, balance and the equity. From these reformulations it is evident that the book value of Carlsberg is 55.997 million DKK. The second component of Carlsberg’s value is found by using the short run forecast to make a pro forma income statement. This pro forma income statement show that the value creation in the period 2015 to 2024 is minus 21.694 million DKK. The loss is coming from a recess in the Russian economy. The last component of Carlsberg’s value comes from the terminal period, which is based on the long run forecast. The value of the terminal period is 27.840 million DKK.When using a simple additive operation the complete value of Carlsberg is 62.143 million DKK. If you divide this by the number of outstanding shares the value of one share in Carlsberg is 62.143/153 = 406,16 DKK.

EducationsMSc in Finance and Accounting, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
LanguageDanish
Publication date2015
Number of pages50