Volatilitet i en aktie: Analyseret ved en værdiansættelse af Vestas Wind Systems A/S

Adam Brødsgaard

Student thesis: Master thesis

Abstract

Executive summary: In 2012 the stock for Vestas Wind System A/S traded at the lowest level at a price of DKK 24,2 per share. Based on a valuation of the company as of the 6th of February 2013 this thesis analyzed the reasons for why the stock traded so low. The valuation of Vestas as of the 6th of February 2013 showed that the Company was underrated on the stock market. The valuation showed a price per stock of DKK 247,9 compared to DKK 36,70 at which the stock was traded on the 6th of February. Therefor from the valuation it could be concluded that the stock was underrated by DKK 211,2. A further examination of the gap was performed by calculation price multiples based on revenue and EBITDA, for peers and companies in the renewable energy sector. The examination showed that the stock for Vestas traded below the other companies in both the revenue and EBITDA based multiple as per 6th of February 2013. A further analysis of the underlying financial performances for the peers in the period around the 6th of February 2013 showed that especially revenue in the first quarter of 2013 was very disappointing for Vestas and further more margin of EBITDA went from 12,8 % down to 3,5 % from 2011 to 2012. This development is in line with the conclusion from the profitability analysis performed on Vestas from the period 2008 to 2012. It shows an ROE on 25,86 % in 2008 falling to - 47,32 % in 2012. The development in ROE is due to an increase in investments in the years leading up to a decrease in revenue and a slowdown in sales. In the following years Vestas was struggling with high productions costs, high fixed costs and large amortizations on intangible assets along with restructuring costs. A valuation of Vestas as of the 11th of February 2015 again showed that the stock was underrated on the stock market. However this time the stock was only underrated by DKK 30,9. The multiple on revenue and EBITDA showed that Vestas was now trading more on the same level as the same peers from the analysis as of the 6th of February 2013. The underlying financial analyses showed that Vestas had increased return on invested capital from – 32,09 % in 2012 to 37,43 % in 2014. The increase in performance is due to the restructuring initiated back in 2011 and the effect of the increased ROIC can be seen by the development of the stock price from the period 6th of February 2013 to the 11th of February 2015. Therefor the volatility in the stock around the 6th of February 2013 was due to a low return on invested capital and the stock market losing faith in management and management’s ability to generate a return on invested capital. However when ROIC was increased the stock price rose and is now trading more aligned with peers based on multiple calculations.

EducationsMSc in Auditing, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
LanguageDanish
Publication date2015
Number of pages153