Strategisk regnskabsanalyse og værdiansættelse af Carlsberg

Morten Bjørn Jensen

Student thesis: Master thesis

Abstract

Carlsberg A/S is the world’s 4th largest brewery, measured in sales volume. The leading position is among others a result of a strong organic growth and a comprehensive acquisition strategy primarily during the recent years. Carlsberg is a public listed company and a member of the NASDAQ OMXC20 with a share price of DKK 461.7 on the 1st of June 2010. The main purpose with this thesis is to estimate the fair market value of a Carlsberg B share as of the 1st of June 2010. The fundament for doing this is a strategic and financial analysis, which is required to prepare the forecasts of the value drivers. The valuation is based on the Discounted Cash Flow model (DCF), the Economic Value Added (EVA) model and on multiples within a peer group. The brewery sector and the environment of Carlsberg were analyzed, followed by a financial analysis which gave an indication of a company with a strong financial and strategic position with minor future challenges. The brewery sector as a whole is in a consolidation phase, where the largest breweries are growing bigger and the total number of breweries is decreasing. The strategic analysis showed some risk elements that Carlsberg will not be able to affect by themselves, among others the currency rate of the Russian ruble that has become one of the most important foreign currencies, with respect to the turnover measured in DKK. The growth rate of Carlsberg was estimated separately for the three regions, North- and Western Europe, Eastern Europe and Asia. The conclusion was that on the matured Northand Western Europe markets the growth rate was low, however still positive. On the growth markets of Eastern Europe and Asia the growth rate was slightly higher. Based on the DCF and EVA valuation models the share price was determined to be DKK 449.00. This value deviates from the market price by 3 %, indicating that the share has been overbought at the time of the valuation. The multiples analysis resulted in a share price interval between DKK 286.7 and DKK 772.1. The result was tested in a sensitivity analysis, which showed that especially the estimated growth factor, in the terminal period, had a significant effect on the share price. The conclusion is that the share price is slightly overvalued by the market, and based on this given a Hold recommendation for the private investor. But because of the growth potential in the longer term, Carlsberg is still an attractive investment for the private investor with a longer investment horizon.

EducationsMSc in Finance and Accounting, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
LanguageDanish
Publication date2010
Number of pages101