Strategisk analyse og værdiansættelse af Novo Nordisk A/S

Abstract

This thesis valuates the Danish medical giant Novo Nordisk A/S to a fair share price of DKK 1.005 the 31st of January 2013. The valuation is based on key drivers and success criteria identified from a strategic analysis as well as an analysis of the financial accounts in the period 2008 to 2012. The strategic analysis focuses on three different levels, (Macro, Meso and Micro, respectively) covering both an external and internal perspective. The analysis of the accounts contains a rebalancing of the accounts, measuring the risk and key figures of Novo Nordisk and its peers. Main key points from the thesis include e.g. that Novo Nordisk has a competitive advantage in keeping a narrow focus with only three product areas, using arms-length relations to customers and suppliers and having a robust pipeline especially in the key area, diabetes. This is also reflected in the accounts e.g. Novo Nordisk presents far better return on invested capital and seems to manage their costs superior compared to the peers. More critical factors which Novo Nordisk should try to improve in the future are their ethics, whether to go all in on value-driven management and the fact that Novo Nordisk has a lot of excess cash, which can destroy shareholder value. To add as much validity to the final results as possible, I use several broadly accepted valuation models. Novo Nordisk’s stock price is valued by both a DCF- and an EVA model combined with multiples. The final result indicates that the stock is overestimated by the market at the given date, on which the closing price was DKK 1.011 per share. My result is robust to the consistency of the DCF- and EVA models giving the same output. The sensitivity analysis shows that if the EBITDA-margin is changed by 1 percentage point in the terminal period, the target rate changes with +/- 39 price points. The strategic reflection gives a best case scenario share value of DKK 1.267 and a worst case scenario share value of DKK 692, respectively. The motivation of the thesis is to present an example of user-friendly guidelines of how a valuation can be done in theory as well as in practice. Given the use of only public information, my approach might especially inspire amateur investors when learning how to pick the right stocks. Secondary, my findings should be of interest to investors, regulators, credit raters and other financial institutions when the result indicates that Novo Nordisk has been overestimated – a sign of incomplete markets according to basic economic theory.