Strategisk regnskabsanalyse og værdiansættelse af Carlsberg A/S

Peter Albæk

Student thesis: Master thesis


The primary objective of this thesis has been to asses a fair value of Carlsberg A/S, as of July 30th 2010. In order to obtain the necessary understanding of the company’s business model and evaluate the competitive landscape, which Carlsberg acts within a strategic analysis was conducted around Carlsberg’s beer activities. The strategic analysis concluded that, Carlsberg possesses a range of competitive advantages, which mainly are arising from economies of scale. The strategic evaluation was followed by a financial analysis of Carlsberg and one of its main competitors, Heineken N.V. The financial analysis found that, for the most part of the period analyzed, Heineken had been more a profitable business than Carlsberg. It was concluded that, Heinekens superior financial performance mainly was the result of a greater ability to match the amount of invested capital to the level of turnover. Based on the findings of the strategic- and the financial analysis, a DCF-valuation as well as an EVA-valuation was carried out, in order to determine a fair value for the B-share of Carlsberg A/S. Based on both the DCF-valuation and the EVA-valuation, the fair value of the B-share of Carlsberg A/S was estimated to be 525 DKK. An analysis based on EV-multiples, derived from peer group companies, suggested that the estimated price is high compared with the multiples, which similar companies are trading at. The initial price estimate was subsequently subjected to a sensitivity analysis, which revealed that the price estimate was highly sensitive to changes in the WACC. Based on the initial price estimate and the subsequent sensitivity analysis it was concluded that, the fair value of the Carlsberg B-share is somewhere in the range of 495-559 DKK. As the closing price of the stock in question was 507 DKK on the date of valuation, the concluding investor recommendation is a Hold-recommendation.

EducationsMSc in Finance and Accounting, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
Publication date2010
Number of pages169