Strategisk analyse og værdiansættelse af Tivoli A/S

Cecilia Sandström Lyngtoft

Student thesis: Master thesis

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to estimate the value of the Danish firm Tivoli A/S. To be able to valuate the shares of Tivoli it is necessary to make a forecast of the future economical condi-tions. Furthermore it is advantageous to gain knowledge of the historical development, which, in this thesis, is done by a strategic and financial analysis. Tivoli was founded in 1843 and the park has since then grown to be one of the most well known amusement parks in the world. The strategic analysis showed which conditions in the surrounding Tivoli has to deal with to maintain success. Examples of these are political issues such as acceptance and support from the municipality of Copenhagen to construct new facilities, the guests ’purchasing power’ and behaviour, the weather and the constant need to be ahead of the guests needs. It also showed that the market, in which Tivoli operates, is dominated by hard competition and that it is rela-tively hard to enter the market for new competitors, because of the large monetary require-ments to uphold an amusement park. The historical study of the financial accounts pointed out, that Tivoli has managed to create value for there shareholders. Tivoli’s success depends largely on their internal resources and capabilities, and their strong market position is due to their differentiated strategy, unique ‘package’ and famous brand. The estimated value of Tivoli’s share price pr. 31.12.2011 of 3.142 DKK means that the cur-rent market price of 2.980 DKK is underestimated. Which leads to the recommendation to buy shares in Tivoli. In spite of the recommendation there is some uncertainty of the underlying factors for the valuation. For example in the risk analysis, the beta estimation, which could lead to significant changes in the value of Tivoli’s shares. Overall it seems that Tivoli has a bright future in terms of growth in earnings, and therefor I consider Tivoli’s shares to be an interesting investment object.

EducationsMSc in Auditing, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
LanguageDanish
Publication date2013
Number of pages134