Strategic Business Cycle Forecasting: A Company Perspective

Christian Brask Thomsen

Student thesis: Master thesis

Abstract

The business environment in modern economies can increasingly be characterized rapid change, fierce competition and internationalization. Furthermore, the financial instability of recent years has contributed in ways, making the business environment even more difficult for companies to navigate in. This makes the development of models, such as strategic business cycle forecasting that can help companies manage their exposure to external factors increasingly important. The objective of this thesis was to uncover how strategic business cycle forecasting can be utilized in a specific company that operates in a specific industry. In the process of illuminating the subject field a literature review of business cycle theories was conducted. The review clarifies the underlying phenomenon that enables the application of strategic business cycle forecasting. After clarifying the phenomenon, methods of actual forecasting and exploitation of forecasting results are presented. A string of interviews was conducted to give further insights into the subject field. The results were employed both directly and as guidance in the process of completing the objective. An assessment of possible leading indicators was conducted. The purpose was to demonstrate the method of forecasting view as most applicable to the case company. The assessment would identify and discus indicators on a macro, meso and micro level, comparing them to the specific company case. The intention being to demonstrate which indicators and which level would have leading qualities in the specific case. The findings suggest using indicators on the macro or micro level. Lastly, the business areas where forecasting results can be employed strategically, in the case company, were discussed. The strategic possibilities are many but of those discussed, the most important were in this specific case in regards to demand and input costs.

EducationsMSc in Finance and Strategic Management, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
LanguageEnglish
Publication date2014
Number of pages83