Værdiansættelse af H. Lundbeck A/S: En praktisk problemstilling

Alex Sandahl Grooten & Jeanette Fjeldsted Knudsen

Student thesis: Diploma thesis

Abstract

In recent years the financial crisis has had a large effect on several industries resulting in bad turn-overs, revenue earning opportunity and a downturn on the price of shares. This thesis seeks to illustrate what the value of H. Lundbeck A/S is, as of the 8th of Feburary 2012 and what their stra-tegic position in the market is. The thesis consists of four main sections, a strategic analysis and an accounts analysis, a financial forecast and a valuation of the company H. Lundbeck A/S. The strategic analysis comprises the strategic position of Lundbeck in their line of business. This is important to include due to the overview and understanding it brings to the rest of the thesis re-garding which factors the company can influence upon to increase or reduce the value of the company. The strategic analysis will also give an insight into the strategic choises made by Lundbeck to preserve and/or improve their market position. Thus the analysis will be divided up into an internal and an external analysis. The external analysis comprises the social relations and threats that might occur for Lundbeck. To cover these relations and threats sufficiently a PESTEL-analysis will be drawn up on a macro level. Furthermore the strategic analysis will contain a Porter’s Five Forces analysis to shine some light upon the growth and income-potential for Lundbeck in addition to showing the advantages and +opportunities in the different sections of the industry. The internal analysis will focus on both the resources and the competencies of Lundbeck which will be analysed through Porter’s value chain and Porter’s generic competitive strategy. Both the external and the internal analysis will hereafter be accumulated in a SWOT analysis, which thereby functions as a partial conclusion. By focusing on the official annual accounts, the accounts analysis will provide an overview of the historic development in Lundbeck. The annual accounts are deemed important since the economic development gives an insight into how the company’s currents situation has occurred and which accounting-related circumstances are going to be establishing for the financial forecast. To bring forth the most relevant image of the accounts it has been decided to redraft the financial data from the last five years thus providing the fairest image of the position of Lundbeck. Just like how the accounts analysis provides an overview of the historic development of the com-pany, the financial forecast will provide an overview of what to expect of the financial future. The financial forecast will be based on both the strategic and the accountsanalysis but will also take into consideration the future expectations of the management from the annual report. The financial forecast will estimate the following 7 financial years. After the 7 years the uncertain-ty of the forecast is too significant and is therefore deemed irrelevant. To control the information provided in the financial forecast is realistic, there will be calculated key figures for each of the forecasted years and thereby classified as realistic or not. The final analysis is the valuation of the company which will be done through the valuation model DCF, which will be controlled by comparing the result to a benchmarking analysis and a multiple analysis. The DCF model is based on capital value, thereby using the forecasted results from previ-ous analysis’ to calculate the theoretical current value of Lundbeck. When the future cashflow has been discounted back and a current value of these occurs, a price of shares will be calculated at the same time. The price of share will be exposed to a sensitivity analy-sis which will show how sensitive the calculated price of shares is in relation to changes. The sensi-tivity analysis will finally end up with providing an overview of in what range the Lundbeck share can be recommended to buy and sell. Finally, when gathering all of the above mentioned information it is possible to estimate the value of Lundbeck as of Feburary 8th 2012 and to illustrate their strategic position in the market. We conclude in the thesis that the Lundbeck share is 152.72 and recommend the share as a good investment.

EducationsGraduate Diploma in Financial and Management Accounting, (Diploma Programme) Final Thesis
LanguageDanish
Publication date2012
Number of pages102