Strategisk regnskabsanalyse og værdiansættelse af Carlsberg

Christoffer Seger Dalum & Jonas Midtgaard

Student thesis: Master thesis


The main purpose with this thesis is a strategic analysis of the Carlsberg business model and a valuation of the company stock as of 1st of July 2011. The company is listed on NASDAQ OMX Copenhagen. Within the global beer industry Carlsberg has grown through organic growth and M&A activity to become the world’s number four brewer in terms of volume and sales. Carlsberg has participated widely in the global consolidation and now has activities spread around Europe and Asia. First part of this thesis is an empiric description of the global beverage industry and the Carlsberg group. In this part of the thesis different trends are described and major highlights such as the latest M&A transactions in the industry are summarized. Second part consist of a strategic analysis where different strategic analysis models are applied to Carlsberg and the beer industry. Among the models are Porters 5 forces, PESTEL, value chain analysis and SWOT. The strategic analysis goes into depth with micro and macro circumstances surrounding the company and industry in general. Third part is a profitability analysis of Carlsberg and a peer group analysis consisting of the three bigger breweries: Heineken, SABMiller and AB InBev. In the final part of this thesis the P&L statement and balance is budgeted and a valuation based upon these is carried out. The Valuation is made using both a Discounted Cash Flow model (DCF) and an Economic Value Added model (EVA). The two valuation models gives a fair value estimate of Carlsberg between 532 – 545 DKK as of 1st of August. On the day of valuation, the stock closed at 510 DKK. The investor recommendation is: Hold Overall Carlsberg has done a good job profiting from their investment on the Eastern European and Russian investment, even though the economic climate has been tough. The brewery is now focused on capitalizing on its increasing Chinese engagement. Carlsberg has a strong presence in the rural areas of especially western china and will need to increase its market share in the urban areas of the world’s largest beer market. Alongside of this Carlsberg needs to plant the seeds for the growth markets of tomorrow, which most likely will be India (where the Carlsberg is represented) and Africa (not represented yet).

EducationsMSc in Finance and Accounting, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
Publication date2011
Number of pages160