Strategisk regnskabsanalyse og værdiansættelse af Carlsberg A/S

Benjamin Rosenquist & Martin Haislund

Student thesis: Diploma thesis


This assignment has been about Carlsberg A/S, who is the world’s 4th largest brewery. The leading position is among others a result of a strong organic growth and a massive acquisition of other brewery’s around the world. The main thesis in this assignment has been to find out what the true value of Carlsberg is, and see whether is over, or undervalued. We have used the residual income method (RIM) to find the fair value of the company. The residual income model values securities using a combination of book value of the company, and a present value based on accounting profits. The value of a company is the present value of the residual income, whit means the amounts of by which profits are expected to exceed the required rate of return on equity. Carlsberg’s public listed value share price is DKK 487 on the 27st of April 2012. Therefore the main question has been, if whether or not the share price on the 27st of April 2012 I over- or undervalued. To answer this question we made a strategic and financial analysis, which was required to prepare the forecasts of the value drivers, and in the end find the fair value by using the Residual income method. Furthermore we ended out by comparing the value whit multiples within a peer group. The brewery sector as a whole is in a phase, where there are a few large breweries ho are growing bigger, and an increasing amount of smaller breweries ho offers special products. Carlsberg are evaluated to stand in a good position in the marked. Especially there investments on the Eastern European and Russian marked are expected to pay off in the upcoming years, even though the economic climate has been tough. The brewery is now focused on capitalizing on its increasing Asien markets, and these investments are dependent on the results made on the Nordand Vest Europe, like the Russian Marked. Alongside of the entry on the Asian marked they need to make a bigger mark on the Indian marked. Based on the Residual Income Model and price multiples the share price was determined to be DKK 613. This indicates that the share is undervalued by the market, and based on this is given a recommendation to buy the stock. The multiples analysis resulted in a share price interval between DKK 609 and DKK 1.059. This long gape between the two extremes, are primarily because of the presents of SABMiller, who is analyzed to stick out from the peer-group. If SABMiller is taken out, the share price is 643. Because of the uncertainty in this analysis, the price multiple is only used as complementary to the fundamental analysis. The overall recommendation is still to buy the stock, and we see a potential growth in the long term, Carlsberg is an attractive investment for an investor with a longer investment horizon.

EducationsGraduate Diploma in Accounting and Financial Management, (Diploma Programme) Final Thesis
Publication date2012
Number of pages93