Strategisk analyse og værdiansættelse af Royal Unibrew A/S

Jeppe Dyhrmann Østenkær

Student thesis: Master thesis


During the last five years Royal Unibrew A/S has been going through a major turnaround of the busi-­‐ ness in the aftermath of a very turbulent time with huge financial deficits, bad cost management, large debt-­‐equity ratio and major impairment losses in Poland back in 2008. The consequence of the turbulent period was a large drop in the stock price, which in 2009 dropped to DKK 24.79 per share from a historic high of DKK 590 in 2007. In 2008 Henrik Brandt joined the com-­‐ pany as CEO and has succeeded in turning the business into a profitable business. He did that through a successful restructuring of the production and distribution processes, which lowered the overall cost in the company and contributed to an increase in the current share price to level of DKK 996 on Sep-­‐ tember 1, 2014. Royal Unibrew A/S primary focuses on the Eastern and Western European markets accounting for 91% of the total revenue in the company. That fact makes Royal Unibrew A/S face some difficult pro-­‐ spects with regards to creating growth in the future, as long term market outlook for these markets are moderate. Creating growth in mature markets within an industry that is highly competitive is a challenging process in which the most efficient way to increase market share is to acquire other brew-­‐ eries, which even may be difficult in a highly consolidated industry. In July 2013 Royal Unibrew A/S chose to acquire the second largest brewery in Finland, Hartwall OY. The acquisition has manifested Royal Unibrews strong position in the Nordic region and the coming years will prove whether the acquisition has been successful or not. Utilizing a fundamental analysis, this thesis challenges the current market price of DKK 996 on Sep-­‐ tember 1, 2014 of Royal Unibrew. For this purpose the discounted cash flow model is applied to pro-­‐ vide the valuation framework. Given the assumption of a constant WACC the estimated fair market value of one share in Royal Uni-­‐ brew on September 1, 2014 at a stand alone basis is found to be DKK 1023,00. Compared to Royal Unibrews current closing price, the estimated fair market value indicates, that the stock might currently be undervalued. A sensitivity analysis though determines that the valuation is subjected to some uncertainty and a multiple-­‐analysis contribute to this fact as the estimated stock price is 34% higher than the average peer group when using the P/E multiple. Thus it indicates that either the forecast is too optimistic or the future prospect for Royal Unibrew is better than for its peer groups.

EducationsMSc in Finance and Accounting, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
Publication date2014
Number of pages142