Strategisk analyse og værdiansættelse af Vestas Wind Systems A/S

Andreas Hedegaard Ramsing

Student thesis: Master thesis


The purpose of this master thesis is to create a strategic analysis and valuation of Vestas Wind Systems. The strategic analysis will focus on Vestas position within the windmill industry and the intensity of the competition between the windmill producers. Furthermore external factors witch have an influence on the windmill industry will be discussed and analysed. The discussion will include the affects of public subsidiary schemes and how competitive wind power is compared to other energy sources. The valuation of Vestas is primarily based on the DCF model and peer group analysis is used to verify the estimated value. The main conclusions of this thesis are: Vestas status as market leader is under pressure. Their relatively weak position in China and USA is going to make it difficult to defend the current market share of 23%. Also the intensity of the competition is expected to increase in the couple of years. Making it difficult for Vestas to achieve theirs goal of a market share of 25 percent by the end of 2008. Public subsidiary schemes are very important for Vestas. Since wind power still is not able to compete with traditional energy sources on market terms. Based on the DCF valuation Vestas is to highly price at in the stock market in Copenhagen with the price ranging from 600-700 this fall. The valuation gave a fair value of 583 DKK. per share. The peer group analysis confirmed this. Because Vestas is priced at a premium to their peers based on key figure analysis. There where also factors that argued for a even more conservative valuation witch emphasized that the current price is to high. Vestas operates in an interesting industry witch high growth. Additionally the company has gone through a turnaround since Ditlev Engel became CEO in 2005 and has seen both considerable top line growth and margin improvements. But the company are faced with a number of challenges in the future. Witch combined with relative expensive valuation do not make Vestas an attractive stock to buy at the current price.

EducationsMSc in Finance and Accounting, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
Publication date2008
Number of pages75