Strategisk regnskabsanalyse og værdiansættelse af Carlsberg A/S

Thomas Møller Hansen

Student thesis: Master thesis


The purpose of this thesis is to estimate the value of the Danish firm Carlsberg A/S and to examine the extent to which the value is exposed to the development in the Russian market. To be able to valuate the shares of Carlsberg it is necessary to make a forecast of the future economical conditions and it is advantageous to gain knowledge of the historical development, which, in this thesis, is done by a strategic and financial analysis. Carlsberg was founded in 1847 and the company has since then grown to be one of the biggest breweries in the world, with a position among the top four largest breweries in the world. Carlsberg has activities in regions all over the world and the most important market to the firm is Northern and Western Europe, but it seems that Carlsberg is going to generate growing revenue in markets in Eastern Europe and Asia in the next few years. As a result of Carlsberg purchasing Scottish & Newcastle in 2008, the company has taken a position as market leader on the Russian market. The strategic analysis showed which surrounding conditions Carlsberg has to deal with to maintain success. Examples of these are prohibitions against smoking in public areas, increased marketing and environment legislations, changes in „purchasing power‟ as a consequence of market trends, and varying consumer behaviour. It also came out that the markets, in which Carlsberg operates, is dominated by hard competition and it is relatively hard to enter the market for new competitors, this caused by the strong position of the biggest existing brewer‟s in the global market. In Russia the consumption of beer is increasing, but higher taxes on beer in Russia sets a limitation in Carlsberg‟s growth in the country. The historical study of the financial accounts pointed in the direction of improvements in the Danish firm over the last period. This development has happened as a result of both organic growth and growth through acquisitions. Furthermore the investigation showed that Carlsberg recently has reduced its debt, which is important for the company to continue to focus on. The estimate of the value of Carlsberg‟s share price of 597 DKK means that the market price is estimated to be underestimated compared with the current share price of 576 DKK on 3. January 2011. Therefore the recommendation is to buy shares of Carlsberg. In spite of the recommendation there is some uncertainty in some of the factors underlying the valuation. For example, there is some uncertainty behind the expected developments in the Russian market which could lead to significant changes in the value of Carlsberg‟s shares, this caused by changes in underlying assumptions. Overall it seems that Carlsberg counters a bright future in terms of growth in earnings, and therefore I consider Carlsberg´s shares to be interesting investment objects.

EducationsMSc in Auditing, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
Publication date2011
Number of pages110