Fundamentalanalyse og værdiansættelse af Matas A/S

Thomas Nyborg

Student thesis: Master thesis

Abstract

Executive summary: The purpose of this Master thesis was to perform a fundamental analysis of Matas to estimate the share price and assess whether it is over-­‐ or undervalued compared to the actual share price. Furthermore, the purpose was to assess the potential rise in the share price if the pharmacist sector was liberalized and Matas entered it. An analysis of the pharmacist sector was carried out to examine how the sector is organized, the economy in it and the oppertunities in regards to a liberalization. The analysis showed that the sector has an annual gross profit at 2.6 billion kroner and a total net profit at 331 million kroner. A strategic analysis was made to reveal where the value in Matas is created. The analysis showed that Matas is in a macro environment with a positive prospect, Matas has a strong position in the industry and the biggest threat is new foreign competitors. Matas’ greatest internal strenght is their newly centralization of the operational platform and key processes. An analysis of the annual reports was made to ensure that all business activities are reflected in the annual reports. The analysis showed that the quality of the annual reports was average. An analysis of the key figures was made to show what drives return on equity and growth. The analysis showed an increasing return on equity driven by an increasing return on operating-­‐ and financing activities. With the knowledge from the analysis, it was possible to estimate a budget. Two budgets were prepared for the scenarios with and without a liberalization of the pharmacist sector. Both budgets were used to prepare pro forma statements. The pro forma statements were used to estimate the fundamental share price using both direct-­‐ and indirct valuation models to prove that the same value can be achieved regardless of the chosen model. The final conclusion of this Master thesis was that it is possible to estimate the same fundamental share price regardless of the model choice. The estimated fundamental share price was DKK 150. A sensitivity analysis showed an uncertanty with a price span of DKK 166-­‐230. The Matas stock closed in a price of DKK 154 at 27 February 2015. Therefore, there is no investment potential in the Matas stock. A liberalization of the pharmacist sector is expected to give an estimated fundamental share price at DKK 210 and in this case there would be an investment potential in the Matas Stock.

EducationsMSc in Auditing, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
LanguageDanish
Publication date2015
Number of pages115