Strategisk regnskabsanalyse og værdiansættelse af Columbus IT, og en vurdering af mulige konsekvenser af den finansielle krise

Heidi Marie Bach

Student thesis: Master thesis

Abstract

The purpose of the thesis has been to evaluate whether IT companies has a low valuation due to the financial crisis and as thus are good investments in 2009. The answer has been found through a case study of Columbus IT, which is an IT consulting com-pany on the Danish stock exchange, delivering trade specific solutions based on MS Dynamics. To calculate an expected value the historical as well as future development has been analysed. The historical analysis was based on annual reports and analysis of the micro and macro environ-ment of the company to form the basis for future budgets and expected growth. After an analysis of critical value drivers, the strategic and financial analyses formed the basis for an expected future cash flow and value of Columbus IT. The valuation was made using the DCF model as well as multiples which are the most widely used models and best suited for the valuation of an IT company. From the DCF model a share price of 11.95 DKK was estimated, which is far more that the share price on December 31, 2008 of 2.40 DKK. The average share price calculated by using multiples was 5.47 DKK, which is closer to the market price but still twice as high. Both types of models have some uncertainties. In the DCF model the major part of the value is from the terminal period, which is sensitive to input relating to WACC and growth. The model was found to be especially sensitive to the estimated growth in turnover. For multiples you have to be able to identify a comparable group of companies, which are seldom found in real life. Also the multiples of the peer group were higher than Columbus IT, but the reasoning behind this cannot be found without further analysis of each of the companies. Assuming that the weight of the DCF model is 70 % and multiples 30 % we get an estimated share price of: (0.7 * 11.95) + (0.3 * 5.47) = 10.01 DKK. From the analysis of Columbus IT and the valuation with both models the share is regarded under-valued and as such expected to be a good investment.

EducationsMSc in Finance and Accounting, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
LanguageDanish
Publication date2010
Number of pages97