Strategisk regnskabsanalyse og værdiansættelse af Dong Energy A/S

Nadia Röder

Student thesis: Master thesis

Abstract

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The purpose of this master, is to evaluate if the shares in DONG Energy A/S was sold at a fair price by the Danish Government in January 2014. The price on the shares is based on a calculated value of DONG Energy on DKK 31,5 billion. The valuation is based on a strategic analysis of DONG Energy as well as an analysis of the historical financial performance. The strategic analysis is based on well-known theoretical models as PESTEL, Porter´s five forces, Porters value chain and it´s all summarized in a SWOT analysis which gives an overview of DONG Energy's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. The strategic analysis shows that especially the two business areas Wind Power and Exploration & Production, is considered to be the future growth areas. In addition, it is found that DONG Energy through sale of non-core activities, has managed to create a solid business portfolio with promising earnings potential. Furthermore, DONG Energy is also significantly influenced by the prices of oil and gas, which is highly cyclical, why this can affect the earnings. The analysis of the historical financial performance shows that especially 2012 and also 2013 have been difficult years for DONG Energy. It is however assessed that DONG Energy has managed to make the necessary adjustments to the business, which will resolve in future positive cash flows and this is reflected in the drawn up budgeting. The valuation is executed through the DCF model which is made from the combined analysis of the strategic and financial performance. The estimated value of DONG Energy is calculated to be DKK 34,3 billion at the end of fiscal year 2013. The estimated value is subject to a test of the underlying value drivers. The test shows clearly that the estimated value is sensitive to changes in WACC and the growth rate in the terminal period. Based on the final valuation, the published value of DONG Energy on DKK 31,5 billion is assessed to be an expression of the real value, and it can therefore be concluded that the shares were sold at a fair price.

EducationsMSc in Auditing, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
LanguageDanish
Publication date2015
Number of pages86