Nordiske elektricitetspriser og mølledrift

Kim Andersen Sangild

Student thesis: Diploma thesis

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate and analyze the Nordic onshore wind market, and to determine whether the region can expect investment from institutional investors, without the market being subsidized in 2025. To determent this, two main questions had to be answered.  What will the price be for electricity in 2025, and what are the key factors that influences the price? - and,  What will the productions cost for one kWh be, from an onshore wind turbine in 2025? The external environment has been analyzed, inspired by Porters Five Forces and the PEST model. The main factors that influence the market price for electricity are the price development of CO2 and fuel cost as well as the development of the transmissions grid. The fast growing share of wind power in the Nordic energy mix will have a negative impact on the electricity prices from wind turbines. This is because turbines are not able produce according to the demand, and it is estimated that the prices from turbines will be 17% lower than the market price in 2025. It also have the effect that the prices will be more volatile. Four major producers, Vattenfall, Fortum, Statkraft and E.ON, dominates the market. Together they produce approximately half of the total production, with Vattenfall as the largest producer with 19 %. To measure the size of firms in relation to the industry, the concentrations index (HHI) was calculated. The result indicated that the Nordic marked is highly competitive, and interviews confirm that competition is among the different technologies rather than between the producers. A simple average of 10 different scenarios resulted in a price per kWh in 2025 of DKK 0.35. As mention above 17 % must be deducted from electricity prices from wind turbines. This leaves approximated DKK 0.29 for production cost (including the initial investment). The predicted production cost for electricity from wind turbines in the Nordic area was compared. The result was that Denmark will be the cheapest country to produce electricity from turbines in, and it is estimated that the cost will be approximately DKK 0.29 per kWh. It can therefore be concluded that, unless the prices for electricity increase more than predicted, institutional investors will not invest in onshore turbines without subsidizes in 2025.

EducationsGraduate Diploma in International Business, (Diploma Programme) Final Thesis
LanguageDanish
Publication date2015
Number of pages97