Den demografiske påvirkning af ejerboligmarkedet i KBH sammenlignet med DK

Abstract

The paper sets up the hypotheses that the demographical influence has been more significant on influencing the housing market price vice, than communicated via the Medias, which mostly focus on economic factors such as the interest rate, overall economy etc. In order to test the influence the paper goes though the development of the Copenhagen and the Danish housing market for a period of time from 1974 to 2012. It is seen that the market overall follows the same trends in the housing market, with rising prices etc. But the interesting part of the comparison is that CPH reacts more intense to changes - This is especially seen when the square meter price is compared. In order to estimate the influence this have on the supply side of the demand and supply curve, 7 factors is analysed for the housing market. It is here concluded that the especially the amount of houses being build and offered on the market and as well the overall total of houses and apartments as a whole, influence the supply side and the prices (short term). In order to estimate the influence from the demographical perspective, a period with a significant price difference between CPH and Denmark were identified. The period which has been identified runs from 1999 to 2009 - In this period the house prices in CPH for a family house were seen to be approximately 101,3 % higher and for apartments 21,3 % higher compared to DK, seen from an average perspective. In order to identify the factors with the largest influence on the housing prices from a demographical perspective, the following factors were analysed for the period up to 1999 (from 1996-1999) and in the end from 2006 to 2009 where the market crashes – The factors analysed is the following: Population, Population Growth, Population by age, Households size, Frequency of movements, Labour & Unemployment, Wages and Education level. It is concluded that the most significant influencers from a demographical perspective with regards to the housing prices is the following; "Unemployment", "Number of inhabitants", "Age allocation" and finally "Wages". It is seen that during the rise of the housing market, that these factors developed in a direction which all supported the increasing prices to some extent, especially for CPH. Most importantly it is seen, that the unemployment rates fell with -44% during the price increase from 1996-1999 up to the identified period from 1999 to 2009. At the same time the population grow and the salaries went up. All these factors reacted more strongly for CPH compared to DK. When the prices started to fall in 2006 - one factor went up with 37,5 % for CPH - This was again the unemployment now just going the opposite direction compared to the price rise. Overall it is concluded that the above factors reacted more intense for the CPH housing market compared to DK and that this development could to some extent, support the increased prices there were seen in CPH for the identified period.