Strategisk regnskabsanalyse og værdiansættelse af D/S NORDEN A/S

Ulrich Husum Sand

Student thesis: Master thesis

Abstract

The subject of this thesis is to estimate the marked value of Dampskibsselskabet NORDEN A/S on a standalone basis per March 16th 2017 through a strategic analysis and valuation of NORDEN.
The first part of the strategic analysis is based on three models consisting of the macroeconomic PESTEL model, the industry specific Porter’s Five Forces and the firm specific Porter’s Value Chain. The objective of the analysis is then to identify potential opportunities and threats in the external environment of NORDEN, and strengths and weaknesses in the internal environment. Despite several firm specific strengths and opportunities in the industry, there seems to be just as many threats, with one of these being the upcoming costs connected with the stricter requirements on the degree of Sulphur in the ship fuel.
The second part of the strategic analysis is looking at the historical financial performance of NORDEN. Here, it became clear that the level and development in the return on equity mainly can be explained by a decrease in the profit margin.
The final valuation is conducted by using the discounted cash flow model and the residual income model. Beforehand the weighted average cost of capital was set to 8.65 % after a thorough analysis of each component, including a regression analysis of the beta value. The two valuation models provided an estimated value per March 16th 2017 of just below USD 690 million, which equals a value per share of DKK 113. This value is significantly under the official stock price of DKK 146 on the same date, which by comparison exposes a variance of almost 30 %. A sensitivity analysis was then prepared, which reveals how sensitive the estimate is to changes in specific factors, where even small changes in the EBIT-margin have great impact on the estimated value. This could possibly explain some of the variance between the estimated value and the stock price, which might be down to the stock market not having incorporated the full costs of the upcoming Sulphur restrictions on ship fuel.
Finally an analysis based on the earnings multiple EV/EBITDA was conducted as a comparison to the above estimated value of NORDEN, where the findings is showing a slight overvaluation short-term with a possible increase in the longer run.

EducationsMSc in Finance and Accounting, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
LanguageDanish
Publication date2017
Number of pages122