Strategisk regnskabsanalyse og værdiansættelse af FLsmidth

Erik Bærentzen

Student thesis: Master thesis

Abstract

In recent years FLSmidth has experienced significant volatility in their share price. The financial crisis as well as the European debt crisis and the political disturbance in the North Africa and Middle East has had a large influence on the concrete and mineral market. This development has put the hole industry under pressure and has proven a great challenged for the market competitors. As one of the largest companies on both the concrete and the mineral market, FLSmidth is greatly effected by these changes. It is therefor the aim of this thesis to analyse the strategic position and the financial standing of FLSmidth. Based on these analyses it is possible estimate the future profitability of the of the company, and by the discounted-­‐cash-­‐flow model determent a fair value of the company share. The strategic analysis reveals that the mining industry seems to have a lot of growth potential, especially in the developing countries, while the cement industry still seems to have problems shaking of the economic aftershocks of the financial crisis. FLSmidth is assessed to have a solid economic foundation with relatively high margins and law financial risk. Which is why the largest risks of the company profitability derives from macroeconomic disturbance. Based on the strategic and financial analyses the share is estimated to be DKK 453. The result of the valuation has been tested in a sensitivity analysis, which revealed that the valuation was especially sensitive to changes in the WACC beta. Furthermore the level of the share price was compared to the closest competitors’ by multiples, which shows the level of the estimation to be reasonable. The conclusion on this thesis is therefore that the FLSmitdh share is slightly undervalued but not far from the market price.

EducationsMSc in Finance and Accounting, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
LanguageDanish
Publication date2012
Number of pages108