Værdiansættelse af Sydbank A/S

Rene Tougård Pedersen & Lars Lyngaa Hansen

Student thesis: Diploma thesis

Abstract

The thesis set out to determine the fair value of Sydbank A/S share as of the 1st of may 2012. Our valuation is based upon a strategic analysis, financial analysis and a risk assessment of Sydbanks loan portfolio. These analyses will be used for a forecast of Sydbanks future economical performance. The forecast will determine Sydbanks equity cash flow which will enable us to calculate the value of Sydbanks share. The strategic analysis concluded that Sydbank is affected by their surroundings – especially regulative legislation. Furthermore it was concluded that the competitive environment in the Danish banking sector is moderate and there are fairly high entry barriers. In our financial analysis it was concluded that Sydbanks return on equity after taxes is unsatisfactory in 2010 and 2011. The main reasons for this are high impairments, a decrease in trading income and non-recurring items such as costs for layoffs and contribution to “Garantifonden and Det Private Beredskab”. The thesis concluded that Sydbank is very well capitalized and already today meet the Basel III regulatory requirements. This means that the Basel III regulatory requirements only in a minor degree will affect Sydbank. The valuation is conducted through a cash flow to equity model and the calculated value subsequently evaluated through a scenario analysis. Also we calculated the equity value of Sydbank using both the Basel III requirements and Sydbanks own solvency target. This analysis showed that the level of solvency has a fairly high impact on the value of Sydbanks equity. The cash flow to equity model resulted in a value of DKK 125,91 per share; a premium of 27,5 % compared to the share price of the 1st of may 2012. Hereby the thesis concluded that the Sydbank share is undervalued.

EducationsGraduate Diploma in Finance, (Diploma Programme) Final Thesis
LanguageDanish
Publication date2012
Number of pages132