Fordele og ulemper ved valg af fastkurspolitik kontra flydende valutakurspolitik

Abstract

This thesis focuses on the benefits and disadvantages of the exchange rate regime in Denmark compared to the exchange rate regime in Sweden. It is important for Danmarks Nationalbank and the Danish government to identify the benefits and disadvantages of the chosen exchange rate regime to ensure that the fixed exchange rate regime is still the preferred alternative. In the thesis, different theories about how fixed exchange rate regimes and inflation targeting regimes react to different changes in the economy are described. It is analysed, whether the described theories work in practice in both the inflation targeting regime in Sweden and in the fixed exchange rate regime in Denmark. It is examined how the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and export has developed since 1993 in both Denmark and Sweden. Furthermore, it is analysed whether there are any statistical connections between the changes in the exchange rate and the development in GDP and export. According to the theories, it seems that an inflation targeting regime has several benefits compared to a fixed exchange rate regime, while a floating exchange rate automatically will equalize economic disparities to other countries. However it seems that changes in the exchange rates have no connection to GDP and export development in Denmark and Sweden. This indicates that the choice of exchange rate regime has no impact on the development in GDP or export. The theoretical benefits in inflation targeting regimes are therefore not confirmed by the result from the statistical analyses. It seems, that there is no significant impact on the analysed economic indicators between the two alternative exchange rate regimes practised in Denmark and Sweden. Instead it seems that other factors such as avoiding fiscal balance deficits and trust in the Central Banks ability to uphold the chosen exchange rate regime have more importance than the actual choice of exchange rate regime