The main objective of this dissertation has been to assess, whether the publicly traded DSV share had a fair value on November 15th 2010 based on a fundamental analysis and DCF valuation. The main external factors affecting the future business operations and the historical profitability were both analysed in order to establish the level of a subsequent budgeting. A valuation of the DSV share based on this budget was carried out using both a primary and a secondary model. The outcome of the primary valuation was then tested for sensitivity to changes in its variables, while the secondary model was used to compare the result to the market’s valuation of similar publicly traded companies. The strategic analysis showed that the activity in the European transport sector depends largely on developments in GDP in Europe and world trade, and they will affect the future volume and profitability in the freight forwarding industry. The financial analysis showed that DSV has experienced a significant decline in the return on equity as a result of declining return on invest-ment and SPREAD, along with increased financial leverage and a negative SPREAD in 2009. Going forward DSV is expected to improve its operating margin in spite of increasing direct costs, due to an even larger reduction in personnel costs. In addition, asset turnover is expected to improve, and overall this will lead to an improvement in DSV’s profit margin. The DCF model was used as the primary model to estimate the firm value of DSV and its shares. The shareholders’ required rate of return and the after-tax cost of debt were determined to be 9.05% and 5.23%, respectively, which resulted in a WACC of 8.16%. This led to an estimated equity value of 22,159 DKK million - corresponding to an estimated value of 106.5 DKK per share. The relative valuation based on a peer group determined the value to be 115.3 DKK and 115.0 DKK, respectively, which is a difference of around 8% compared to the DCF model. The DSV share closed on November 15th 2010 at a price of 115.6 DKK, which is a difference of 7.9% compared to the estimated value based on the DCF model. The sensitivity analysis showed that even small changes in key variables could explain the difference between the actual and the estimated price, and it was therefore assessed that the DSV share was correctly priced on November 15th 2010.
|Educations||MSc in Finance and Accounting, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis|
|Number of pages||150|