Strategisk regnskabsanalyse og værdiansættelse af Københavns Lufthavne A/S

Christoffer Hansen

Student thesis: Master thesis

Abstract

This thesis addresses the issue of whether or not Copenhagen Aiports (CPH) is correctly valued at NASDAQ OMX Copenhagen. Furthermore, it addresses the issue if CPH is geographically and strategically correct located. Since no equity analysts cover the stock, the purpose of this thesis is to give possible buyers/sellers of the stock an analysis that can be used in their decision making regarding a possible trade of the CPH stock. CPH is the largest airport in northern Europe and has been the main hub for SAS for several years. Due to the corporation and synergies between SAS and CPH, SAS is a valuable client for the airport. Furthermore, SAS is the main supplier of passengers to CPH due to their status as the largest airline company in Scandinavia. Therefore, the biggest threat to CPH is if SAS is be acquired by a foreign airline company that will use another airport than CPH as main hub, which will mean a big loss of passengers for CPH. The financial crisis has put CPH under a great deal of pressure; they lost 1.8 million passengers to 19.7 million passengers in 2009, which makes it hard to reach their strategic goal of 30 million passengers in 2015. Furthermore, CPH has declined from the 10th to the 15th largest airport in Europe. To meet the tough situation and to meet the shareholders’ and stakeholders’ expectations, CPH has build a new lowcost pier, CPH SWIFT, which is a new concept designed to increase airline efficiency and to attract new, efficient airlines and provide passengers with more cheap fares. Moreover, together with other stakeholders CPH has created “Copenhagen Connected”, which is a foundation to promote Copenhagen and CPH. Compared with its Nordic competitors (OSL and ARN), CPH has more passengers, more intercontinental routes and higher revenues, differentiated earnings, but a higher passenger tax. The financial analysis of CPH shows that CPH has had an increase in earnings from 2004-2007, but 2008- 2009 were bad years due to the financial crisis. When comparing the key financial indicators ROE, ROIC, and EBIT-margin for the main three Nordic airports, CPH is second best after OSL. The DCF-valuation model is used to calculate the value of CPH. Estimation of the main value driver (number of passengers) and costs are based on strategic and financial analyses. The number of passengers is estimated to have an annual growth rate of 5% in 2010-2012, 5,5% in 2013-2014 and reach a stable level of annual growth rate of 3% from 2015 and forward. Costs are estimated to compose a fixed percentage level of revenues. The enterprise value of CPH is conservatively estimated to be DKK 10.034 million, which gives a stock price of DKK 1.278, which means that CPH is underestimated. Based on the strategic analysis, the conclusion is that CPH is strategically and geographically located correctly.

EducationsMSc in Auditing, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
LanguageDanish
Publication date2010
Number of pages140