Strategisk regnskabsanalyse og værdiansættelse af Carlsberg A/S

Christian Engwald Jensen

Student thesis: Master thesis

Abstract

The main purpose of this thesis has been to estimate the value of Carlsberg as of marts 22 2012, and estimate a fair value of Carlsberg’s B-stock. Once the fair value of Carlsberg is estimated it can be concluded weather the stock price as of marts 22 2012 is over or underestimated, or it has the right price. The thesis is build up on three steps. The first step is a strategic analysis, where the focus is to analyze the environment around Carlsberg. Further on the strategic analysis gives insight into Carlsberg´s business model which is important for the valuation. Next step is an analysis of Carlsberg’s historical financial performance. Final step is the forecasting and valuation of Carlsberg. The strategic analysis showed that Carlsberg is the fourth biggest brewery in the world. Carlsberg have chosen to focus on 3 markets, North- & Westeurope, Easteurope and Asia. The analysis showed that the North- & Westeurope market is facing a tough time, where there isn’t any growth, which can be related to the financial crisis and the fact that the market is mature. Both the Asian markets and the market at Easteurope have experienced huge growth and it is expected that the growth will continue. Though there have been growth at the Easteurope market, the market have faced challenges with increased charges and other legislative factors. The financial analysis showed that Carlsberg have experienced growth in the revenue the last five years. Despite the growth, Carlsberg have had big fluctuations in both ROE and EVA. These fluctuations can be assigned to gains and losses at exchange rates. If Carlsberg have been without the gains and losses from exchange rates, ROIC would have been constant over the analyzed period. On basis of the strategic and the financial analysis a budget was made. Based on the budget Carlsberg was valuated with the DCF-method. The result was controlled by the EVA-method. A multiple analysis showed that the estimated value, based on the DCF-method, is low compared to a peer group of similar companies. Despite the different estimated values, it’s concluded that the initial estimated price of 542 DKK. for one B-share is the fair value. The market value on marts 22 2012 was 459 DKK, which make a gap of 83, DKK. between the academic value and the market value.

EducationsMSc in Finance and Accounting, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
LanguageDanish
Publication date2013
Number of pages93