Værdiansættelse af havmølleparker under udvikling

Niclas Raulund Ege & Anni Fong

Student thesis: Master thesis

Abstract

In recent years politicians, investors and companies all over the world have paid increasing attention to the renewable energy industry, where especially the wind energy sector has expanded significantly. The intensified focus aims to overcome the global climate changes. In light of this situation the Danish government has set out ambitious goals regarding a conversion to 100% sustainable energy in 2050. Today, Denmark is one of the leading nations within renewable energy with approx. 40% of its power production originating from wind energy. With the increasing investments in wind energy assets, it is considered essential to undertake correct valuation of wind farms. This study aims to research the valuation of wind farms still under development by examining the applicability of different valuation models. The research is based on a case study of the near-shore wind farm named Mejlflak. In order to obtain accurate valuations of wind farms still under development and due to their characteristics (long-term with a staged development phase), it is crucial to capture risk and value derived from project specific uncertainties, changing market conditions and managerial flexibility under the development phase in the applied valuation model. The study has deliberately separated valuation with and without the inclusion of debt financing for the purpose of enabling an unbiased evaluation of the investment decision. Four different valuation models have been examined in this thesis. The traditional DCF model has been applied to valuate the operational phase of the wind farm, however the DCF model appears insufficient to account for the risks and values derived from the development phase. The Expected Net Present Value (ENPV) model is considered widely applicable for valuation of staged projects and is able to account for project specific uncertainties in the development phase. In continuation hereof the Binomial Real Option Valuation (ROV) model is utilized to cater for both project specific uncertainties, changing market conditions, while adding value generated from managerial flexibility. The ROV model is therefore concluded to be the most appropriate valuation model under the examined circumstances. The study further concluded that debt financing provides the wind farm with an interest tax shield, which in return reduces tax payments and thus increases the value of the wind farm. For each of the valuation models a sensitivity analysis has been performed with the objective of uncovering the contribution of individual parameters on the project value. Electricity prices, net production, construction expenditures and financial gearing were identified in the sensitivity analysis as the most relevant parameters in determining the value of a wind farm. From a practical perspective the study supports the use of the ROV model on the basis that it accounts for managerial flexibility and changes in market conditions as oppose to the ENPV model.

EducationsMSc in Finance and Accounting, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
LanguageDanish
Publication date2015
Number of pages125