Værdiansættelse af Arp-Hansen Hotel Group A/S med et ejendomsperspektiv

Thomas Jacob Darmon

Student thesis: Master thesis


The purpose of this thesis is to estimate the value of the equity of Arp-Hansen Hotel Group A/S, a Danish hotel company based in Copenhagen, Denmark. The valuation of the company’s equity is based on a strategic analyses as well as a financial analysis of the company. Furthermore, we briefly explore the possibility of Arp-Hansen A/S to shift focus from hotel activity to real estate and the opportunities and challenges this implies. The strategic analysis showed us that Arp-Hansen Hotel Group A/S operates on a market that has experienced growth the last couple of years. The hotel market in Denmark, and more specifically Copenhagen, is expected to grow in the near future, driven by an increase in the number of foreign visitors. Arp-Hansen Hotel Group A/S is well positioned in this market as they have a substantial market share and offer a number of options in regards to hotel accommodations in various price classes. The main conclusion from the strategic analysis is that Arp-Hansen Hotel Group A/S is well placed to take advantages of the future growth opportunities on the Copenhagen hotel market. The financial analysis, based on a historic analysis derived from the financial reports from 2010- 2015, shows us a company that has recovered from a rather poor year in 2010, and has managed to create growth in revenue ever since, while managing to present a growth rate in expenses that is lower than the one experienced in revenue. Based on the strategic and financial analysis, we formed a budget as a basis for the valuation of Arp-Hansen Hotel Group A/S, made with the use of a DCF model. Using the DCF model to evaluate the value of the equity of Arp-Hansen Hotel Group A/S, we estimated that the company’s equity was worth 3,229,537,000 DKK. We subjected our DCF analysis to a sensitivity test to see how a different growth rate in the terminal period and how a different WACC influenced the value of Arp-Hansen Hotel Group A/S’s equity. This sensitivity test showed us that Arp-Hansen Hotel Group A/S was sensitive to a change in the growth rate and WACC, WACC more so than the growth rate. Since Arp-Hansen Hotel Group A/S is not publicly traded, and therefor a stock price in not available, we used a comparison of price earnings of Arp-Hansen Hotel Group A/S and publicly traded hotel companies.

EducationsMSc in Finance and Accounting, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
Publication date2016
Number of pages82