Strategisk regnskabsanalyse og værdiansættelse af Carlsberg

Ronni Jansen

Student thesis: Master thesis


The purpose of this master is to make a strategic and financial analysis of Carlsberg to estimate the stock price and then conclude if the official stock price on the Danish stock exchange is over- or undervalued. Carlsberg was founded back in 1847 and then the company has grown to be one of the biggest breweries in the world, with a current position as the fourth largest brewery. This position was mainly achieved with acquisition of Scottish & Newcastle together with Heineken in 2008. As a result of this Carlsberg has taken a position as market leader on the Russian market, which is one of the largest markets in the world. Carlsberg’s activities are mainly located in three regions: Easternand Northern Europe, Western Europe and Asia. The strategic analysis showed, that the mature markets that Carlsberg operate on, is expected to have limited growth the next couple of years. Consumers in Northern- and Western Europe are changing their view on alcohol and beer in general but people are also drinking more wine. The region Eastern Europe mainly lead by Russia have been struggling with tax increases and limitation in advertising on alcohol beverages which have a negative impact on the consumption of beer. Carlsberg are therefore focusing on process innovation to lower the input cost per product and lancing new products with women as the target group. Asia is the new growth region and there is a lot of focus on this particular region, as this is going to carry the overall growth the coming years. The analysis of Carlsberg’s historical financial performance shows that they have been very exposed to currency changes, which is due to the takeover of S&N, where they became a key player in Russia and the Russian Ruble have fluctuated significantly the last couple of years. If this factor was taken out, Carlsberg have had a positive trend in their performance and focus on bringing down their cost per. product. They have managed to improve their gearing ratio after the takeover so they bring down their debt vs. equity. The valuation is executed through the DCF-model, where the prepared budget has provided the background for it. The share price on 31th of July 2012 is estimated to kr. 607 and the official price on NASDAQ OMX was kr. 490 indicating that the share price of Carlsberg is undervalued.

EducationsMSc in Auditing, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
Publication date2012
Number of pages99