Strategisk forecasting i magasinbranchen

Nanna Rust

Student thesis: Master thesis

Abstract

Companies today are facing a situation of increased competition and globalization, constant changes in technology, demographics, consumer preferences, natural resources and not least an increased focus on the environment. All conditions in their environment, which they cannot control. The above factors could all point towards, that planning including strategic forecasting should be an obvious tool to adopt, however this is not the case. The theoretical framework is based on a PESTEL analysis as well as a scenario analysis. The thesis is based primarily on quantitative data and consists of six expert interviews. All six experts are directly or indirectly related to the magazine industry. The purpose of the six expert interviews was to identify the use of strategic forecasting in the magazine industry, and also to investigate whether the magazine industry has a future, in a time with vast increasing digitization. The magazine industry is an industry where the environment plays an important role in relation to their current situation, and therefore it is an industry that could benefit from using strategic forecasting. However in the magazine industry, strategic forecasting is not a known tool and therefore not a tool that is used. When they plan the future strategy they base it on previous experiences and gut feelings. In addition, there is a tendency to only react when they are facing declining publications and readnumbers or declining ad revenue. The scenario analysis showed that the magazine industry is facing four possible scenarios, which may have a significant impact on their business. A common denominator for three of the scenarios was that the digital development is the main focus. The magazine industry has not been good enough to meet the digital challenge and when they have made an attempt, they only made it half-hearted. It is important that they invest in developing a digital version of their magazine for iPad and other tablets. This version should exploit the digital opportunities with for example live commercials and live articles. It will require large investments in the magazine industry, but the question is whether they can afford not to? The magazine industry is facing a number of challenges, but also a number of opportunities if they manage to exploit them. Most important is that they manage to exploit the digital media and its potential while maintaining the development on the digital media’s terms. The magazine industry must invest in the digital platforms and although many of the initiatives require large financial investments, and rethinking of the whole business, the conclusion must be that they cannot afford not to.

EducationsMSc in Economics and Marketing, (Graduate Programme) Final Thesis
LanguageDanish
Publication date2012
Number of pages92