War, Democracy, and Government Size Over the Long Run: A Structural Breaks Analysis

Mark Dincecco, Mauricio Prado

Research output: Working paperResearch

Abstract

This paper examines the links between warfare, democracy, and government size over the long run, from the early nineteenth century to the present. We assemble new time series for government size for eight European countries. We then examine individual data trends using a combination of narrative and statistical techniques. Our key methodological contribution is to employ structural breaks tests, which assume no a priori knowledge of major turning points in the time series, but let the data ``speak" for themselves. Our results indicate that warfare, and not franchise extension, is the key driver of long-run increases in government size.
This paper examines the links between warfare, democracy, and government size over the long run, from the early nineteenth century to the present. We assemble new time series for government size for eight European countries. We then examine individual data trends using a combination of narrative and statistical techniques. Our key methodological contribution is to employ structural breaks tests, which assume no a priori knowledge of major turning points in the time series, but let the data ``speak" for themselves. Our results indicate that warfare, and not franchise extension, is the key driver of long-run increases in government size.
LanguageEnglish
Place of Publicationwww
PublisherSSRN: Social Science Research Network
Number of pages39
StatePublished - 14 Apr 2010

Keywords

    Cite this

    Dincecco, M., & Prado, M. (2010). War, Democracy, and Government Size Over the Long Run: A Structural Breaks Analysis. www: SSRN: Social Science Research Network.
    Dincecco, Mark ; Prado, Mauricio. / War, Democracy, and Government Size Over the Long Run : A Structural Breaks Analysis. www : SSRN: Social Science Research Network, 2010.
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    abstract = "This paper examines the links between warfare, democracy, and government size over the long run, from the early nineteenth century to the present. We assemble new time series for government size for eight European countries. We then examine individual data trends using a combination of narrative and statistical techniques. Our key methodological contribution is to employ structural breaks tests, which assume no a priori knowledge of major turning points in the time series, but let the data ``speak{"} for themselves. Our results indicate that warfare, and not franchise extension, is the key driver of long-run increases in government size.",
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    Dincecco, M & Prado, M 2010 'War, Democracy, and Government Size Over the Long Run: A Structural Breaks Analysis' SSRN: Social Science Research Network, www.

    War, Democracy, and Government Size Over the Long Run : A Structural Breaks Analysis. / Dincecco, Mark; Prado, Mauricio.

    www : SSRN: Social Science Research Network, 2010.

    Research output: Working paperResearch

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    T1 - War, Democracy, and Government Size Over the Long Run

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    Dincecco M, Prado M. War, Democracy, and Government Size Over the Long Run: A Structural Breaks Analysis. www: SSRN: Social Science Research Network. 2010 Apr 14.