@techreport{675c5624ae264530870cdf8ca8cd4bbb,
title = "Time-varying Effects of Extreme Weather Shocks on Output Growth of the United States",
abstract = "This study investigates the impact of a structural shock to a metric of extreme weather, identified using sign restrictions, on output growth (and inflation) in the United States (US) from 1961 to 2022, using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. Our results show that severe weather shocks adversely affect output growth (and inflation) over the forecast horizon of one- to twelve-quarter-ahead. More importantly, we find that the effect of extreme weather on the US macroeconomic variables is indeed time-varying, with the impacts becoming smaller in recent times, possibly due to improved adaptation to climate change.",
keywords = "Severe weather, Endogenous TVP-VAR, Growth, Inflation, Severe weather, Endogenous TVP-VAR, Growth, Inflation",
author = "Xin Sheng and Rangan Gupta and Oguzhan Cepni",
year = "2023",
month = aug,
language = "English",
series = "Working Paper Series / Department of Economics. University of Pretoria ",
publisher = "University of Pretoria",
number = "2023-24",
address = "South Africa",
type = "WorkingPaper",
institution = "University of Pretoria",
}