To evaluate the transportation time reliability of the maritime transportation network for China’s crude oil imports under node capacity variations resulting from extreme events, a framework incorporating bi-level programming and a Monte Carlo simulation is proposed in this paper. Under this framework, the imported crude oil volume from each source country is considered to be a decision variable, and may change in correspondence to node capacity variations. The evaluation results illustrate that when strait or canal nodes were subject to capacity variations, the network transportation time reliability was relatively low. Conversely, the transportation time reliability was relatively high when port nodes were under capacity variations. In addition, the Taiwan Strait, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Strait of Malacca were identified as vulnerable nodes according to the transportation time reliability results. These results can assist government decision-makers and tanker company strategic planners to better plan crude oil import and transportation strategies.
- Transportation time reliability
- China’s crude oil imports
- Maritime transportation network
- Capacity variations
- Bi-level programming
- Monte Carlo simulation