The Prediction of Fall Circumstances Among Patients in Clinical Care: A Retrospective Observational Study

Sven Rehfeld, Matthias Schulte-Althoff, Fabian Schreiber, Daniel Fürstenau, Anatol-Fiete Näher, Armin Hauss, Charlotte Köhler, Felix Balzer

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Standardized fall risk scores have not proven to reliably predict falls in clinical settings. Machine Learning offers the potential to increase the accuracy of such predictions, possibly vastly improving care for patients at high fall risks. We developed a boosting algorithm to predict both recurrent falls and the severity of fall injuries. The model was trained on a dataset including extensive information on fall events of patients who had been admitted to Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin between August 2016 and July 2020. The data were recorded according to the German expert standard for fall documentation. Predictive power scores were calculated to define optimal feature sets. With an accuracy of 74% for recurrent falls and 86% for injury severity, boosting demonstrated the best overall predictive performance of all models assessed. Given that our data contain initially rated risk scores, our results demonstrate that well trained ML algorithms possibly provide tools to substantially reduce fall risks in clinical care settings.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationChallenges of Trustable AI and Added-Value on Health : Proceedings of MIE 2022
EditorsBrigitte Séroussi, Patrick Weber, Ferdinand Dhombres, Cyril Grouin, Jan-David Liebe, Sylvia Pelayo, Andrea Pinna, Bastien Rance, Lucia Sacchi, Adrien Ugon, Arriel Benis, Parisis Gallos
Number of pages2
Place of PublicationAmsterdam
PublisherIOS Press
Publication date2022
ISBN (Print)9781643682846
ISBN (Electronic)9781643682853
Publication statusPublished - 2022
EventThe 32nd Medical Informatics Europe Conference. MIE 2022 - Nice, France
Duration: 27 May 202230 May 2022
Conference number: 32


ConferenceThe 32nd Medical Informatics Europe Conference. MIE 2022
Internet address
SeriesStudies in Health Technology and Informatics

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