The Contagion Effect of COVID-19-induced Uncertainty on US Tourism Sector: Evidence from Time-varying Granger Causality Test

Oguzhan Cepni, Tarik Dogru*, Ozgur Ozdemir

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review


This study investigates the effect of COVID-19-induced uncertainty on the overall stock market and the stock performance of the tourism and hospitality industry and its subsectors utilizing a novel time-varying robust Granger causality test. The results show that the COVID-19 pandemic–induced uncertainty has an adverse impact on the overall economy, tourism and hospitality industry, and subsectors of tourism and hospitality. However, the impact of COVID-19 pandemic–induced uncertainty is more significant in the tourism and hospitality industry and its subsectors. In particular, hotels sector has experienced the largest impact from the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by restaurants and airline sectors, respectively. Research and practical implications are discussed.
Original languageEnglish
JournalTourism Economics
Issue number4
Pages (from-to)906-928
Number of pages23
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2023

Bibliographical note

Published online: 26 Mar 2022.


  • Pandemic
  • COVID-19
  • Uncertainty
  • Tourism
  • Time-varying causality

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