Subjective Bayesian Beliefs

Constantinos Antoniou, Glenn W. Harrison, Morten I. Lau, Daniel Read

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review


A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes’ Rule when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from psychology, employing the methods of experimental economics, with careful controls for the confounding effects of risk aversion. Our results show that risk aversion significantly alters inferences on deviations from Bayes’ Rule.
Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Risk and Uncertainty
Issue number1
Pages (from-to)35-54
Number of pages20
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2015

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