Stock vs. Bond Yields and Demographic Fluctuations

Arie Gozluklu, Annaïg Morin

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

This paper analyzes the strong comovement between real stock and nominal bond yields at generational frequencies. Using a stochastic overlapping generations model with cash-in-advance constraints, we show that the simulated life-cycle patterns in savings behavior make both real stock and nominal bond yields comove with the changing population age structure. These persistent comovements account for the equilibrium relation between stock and bond markets. A stochastic Fisher decomposition of nominal bond yields reveals that, while having a moderate effect on both the inflation risk premium and expected inflation, demographic changes affect nominal yields mainly through real bond yields. Using both U.S. data and a cross-country panel, we find empirical support for these theoretical predictions. Finally, we show that the strength of the demographic effect on real yields explains cross-country differences in the comovement between stock and bond markets, while alternative demographic channels fail to explain such cross-country heterogeneity.
Original languageEnglish
Article number105683
JournalJournal of Banking & Finance
Volume109
Number of pages25
ISSN0378-4266
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2019

Keywords

  • Demographics
  • Financial yields
  • OLG
  • Inflation risk premium

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